Ecuadorian Politics II

In the November 17th issue of the Imprint I wrote about the first round of Ecuador’s two round presidential and congressional elections. Looking back on that article, I now realize how little I knew, and in fact how much more could have been said about Ecuadorian politics in general. The second round revealed much more about the true nature of politics in Ecuador and in which direction the country is heading.

After the first round the final results were a bit surprising for all involved. Noboa was in first with 26%, and Correa second at 22%. In the last week of the first round Correa, rather arrogantly, had convinced himself that because of the results certain polls he could win in the first round. He even went so far as to release ads saying “Let’s win it on the first ballot.” This played into Noboa’s hands, who by using fear and the communism card (usually applied to any candidate from the left), was able to vault himself into first place.

What was most shocking about the first round, however, was not the top two candidates, but who finished third: Gilmar Guitterez, running for the Partido Sociedad Patriotica (Patriotic Society Party, PSP). I had heard so little about him and his party in the first round that I didn’t even bother to write a profile of him in my previous article. After his strong showing what I did learn about him revealed much to me about how politics works in Ecuador.

Gilmar Guitterez is the brother of Lucio Guitterez, Ecuador’s president who was deposed in April of 2005. With Lucio gone, how did Gilmar get to be leader of the PSP? The simple answer is that the PSP is not an actual political party. It would more aptly be called Guitterez Brothers Inc., a corporation created to put them in power. In Canada people organize around parties with policies, common ideology, and a leader who shares that vision. In Ecuador politics is fragmented and personal, and based on politicians extending personal favours to gain power. When party leaders die or lose prestige their parties collapse and are rebuilt around new people.

This organizing principle applies to all parties, especially Noboa and his “party”, PRIAN. PRIAN is in fact not an actual party, but simply another business Noboa has set up whose express goal is to win him political power. His candidate for VP is his top attorney and his senators in congress are all his employees.

It is through these clientalistic relationships that most politicians are able to get into power. Much of this is expressed through “help” to Ecuador’s numerous poor. Accepting this help is actually quite a rational calculation on the part of the poor. If Noboa offers a starving person $40 and t-shirt for their vote, can you blame them for taking it? During the previous Guitterez presidency substantial food aid was provided to poor communities who subsequently voted massively for Guitterez.

The alternative to this form of politics is Correa and Alianza Pais. Through the constituent assembly Correa is proposing not only that politics be done differently but that it not be done by the same group who have always controlled it. The challenge for Correa was assuring moderates that he was committed to the political process and wouldn’t play to extremists. In the middle of the second round he appeared at a hotel in Quito to declare he would abide by democratic principles and form a pact of understanding with several members of civil society.

In the second round I felt as if there was a lot less excitement than in the first. In the last few days, however, the excitement began to heat up. Would Noboa win and transform the country into his personal business empire or would Correa convince Ecuadorian to give credence to his new political path? With only a few days left the polls had Correa and Noboa running neck and neck. Either of the two had the possibility of winning.

Voting day this time was quite different from my past experience. In the first round I was in a big city, this time I found myself in a town of around 500 people. Voters leisurely walked to the polls, took their time voting, and didn’t seem too stressed about the whole thing. I didn’t see much evidence of election excitement until I took a bus into a bigger town a few hours later.

As I got into town I saw the first evidence of an election victory. People in pick up trucks with bright green Correa flags were racing down the street yelling in victory. Gathering outside a television set up on the side of the street I saw the results of the first exit polls: Correa 78% Noboa 22%! The Correa supporters were ecstatic! Across the street at the Noboa office a lone man sat by himself, looking as if his whole world had collapsed around him.

One man I talked to on the side of the street told me how Noboa had blown it in the last week. Noboa often plays up the Christian message in his appearances, but apparently he had gone to far. This man was offended by Noboa’s excessive use of the Bible, the fact that he used the Lord’s name in vain, and his outlandish claim to be “the Christ.” “After all, we are a Catholic country,” this man told me about his decision to vote against Noboa.

On television Noboa was even more frantic and incomprehensible than before. The results couldn’t be true, he asserted, and he had the facts to prove it. Citing a poll from four days before the election he claimed that he had won the election. When the interviewer pointed out that there was four days between the poll and the election he blurted back, “what could have possibly happened in four days?” Apparently Noboa hasn’t studied politics. High voter volatility and a large number of undecided voters mean that only the polls done a day before an election have any real significance.

The Correa victory put several of the Canadians that I was with in a new and interesting situation. Progressive voters in Canada usually have the choice of voting Green or NDP, which they know will lose, or vote Liberal and hope for the best. Very rarely do these voters get more than a strong showing in opposition at best. The chance to actually celebrate a victory was refreshing, despite how I’d tried to remain as detached from the process as I could.

In the end the Correa victory was less substantial than the exit polls predicted but still significant: 56% to 44%. Most telling was his strong victory in two provinces where Noboa has ruthlessly treated workers on his banana plantations. Despite Correa’s victory he still faces the formidable task of convincing congress to relinquish their power and approve the constituent assembly. Will he be able to muster support for change, or fail and bow to the political mercy of congress? Ecuador will find out when he steps into office on January 15th.